The 'Super' El Niño & climate change – RAZOR Conversations: Professor Adam Scaife

As climate systems grow increasingly volatile across the globe, one phenomenon continues to drive extreme weather on a planetary scale: El Niño. El Niño is a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that disrupts global weather systems, often triggering extreme events including floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, crop failure and economic instability around the world. This year early forecasts are pointing to it being one of the worst yet, with many calling it a "Super" El Niño.

In this RAZOR Conversations, Neil Cairns explores the upcoming El Niño event through the perspective of one of the world's leading climate scientists, Professor Adam Scaife, a leading climate scientist at the UK's Met Office. Their conversation explores why El Niño develops, why this cycle matters more than ever in a warming world, and what scientists are now seeing in the data. El Niño typically brings wetter and stormier weather to the southern coasts of North and South America, the Horn of Africa and China, raising the risk of flooding. Its impacts can also persist after the event has peaked.

Also discussed is this year's extreme weather. So far in 2026, the UK and Europe have experienced historic, record-breaking weather patterns. The year has been defined by a succession of extreme heatwaves and 14,000 people may have died as a result of the unprecedented temperatures in early summer.

Chapters:
0:00 - Intro
0:38 - The heat wave so far
1:32 - Average temperatures exponential rise
3:25 - Why is Europe warming faster than average?
6:10 - Climate change
8:12 - Long term forecasting
9:40 - Isn't it natural warming?
12:06 - Witnessing climate change
14:04 - Intro Super El Niño
15:35 - What causes the El Niño
17:20 - Impacts of El Niño
18:38 - El Niño has arrived
19.35 - How did Peruvian fishermen predict El Niño?
21:31 - How often does an El Niño happen?
23:27 – El Niño makes the day longer
26:04 - El Niño increases flood risk the following year

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